World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2024-2028
A new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed a sobering statistic: there is an 80% chance that annual global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at least once between 2024 and 2028. This underscores the urgent need for climate action to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
- 80% Likelihood of Exceeding 1.5°C:
- There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will temporarily surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels at least once in the next five years.
- New Temperature Records:
- There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2024 and 2028 will set a new temperature record, surpassing the temperatures recorded in 2023.
- Global Mean Temperature Rise:
- The global mean temperature for 2024-2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.
- Five-Year Average Temperature:
- There is a 47% chance that the five-year average temperature will exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
Historical Context:
- 2015:
- The likelihood of exceeding 1.5°C was close to zero.
- 2017-2021:
- The chance increased to 20%.
- 2023-2027:
- The likelihood jumped to 66%.
Analysis:
- Short-term vs Long-term:
- Temporary spikes in temperature do not mean a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, which focuses on long-term averages.
- Arctic Warming:
- Arctic warming over the next five extended winters is predicted to be more than three times the global mean temperature increase.
- Sea Ice Reduction:
- Further declines in sea-ice concentration are expected in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk from 2024-2028.
Implications:
- Economic Costs:
- Billions of dollars in damages are expected due to more extreme weather events.
- Environmental Impact:
- Significant harm to biodiversity and ecosystems is anticipated.
- Human Impact:
- Increased health risks and displacement due to climate-related disasters are expected.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett emphasizes that temporary breaches of 1.5°C signal the need for intensified efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres warns, “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet.” The window for action is closing, and the 2020s will be crucial in determining our climate future. The urgency to act cannot be overstated, as the decisions made in this decade will shape the climate trajectory for years to come.
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